An Econometric Analysis of the Most Important Factors Affecting White Meat Production in Egypt Using Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL)

Eliw, Moataz

doi:10.21608/jsas.2025.351756.1502

An Econometric Analysis of the Most Important Factors Affecting White Meat Production in Egypt Using Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL)

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Moataz Eliw

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Beni-Suef University, Egypt.

10.21608/jsas.2025.351756.1502

Abstract

This research aims to to measure the key factors influencing the production of white meat in Egypt using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL). It analyzed the impact of positive and negative shocks to major factors such as white meat prices, imported feed costs, and exchange rates on production quantities during the period (1995-2022). The objective was to identify the most significant independent variables affecting production in both the short and long term and to determine the time required to restore equilibrium after these variables experience shocks.
The results indicated that the impact of positive and negative shocks in the short term for the independent variables was statistically insignificant. However, the effects of imported feed costs and exchange rates became statistically significant when lag periods were introduced, particularly with a single lag period or when the first difference of some variables was taken.
The econometric analysis results further revealed that negative shocks to both imported feed costs and exchange rates have a statistically significant negative relationship with the quantity of white meat production when a single lag period is included. Specifically, an increase in the impact of these variables by one unit leads to a decrease in white meat production by 1.31 units and 11.49 units, respectively, at 1% and 5% significance levels during the study period.

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