SEASONALITY IN PRICES AND PRODUCTION OF SOME KINDS OF FISH USING MOVING MODELS

Fish is one of animal protein sources, compared to the meat price ischeap, as it's more healthy compared to chicken meat, which was hit by birdflu in 2006, causing many consumers leave it and attitude to the alternativemeat represented in fish and descriptive by seasonality, and because ofthe shortage in the models used in time series analysis, the research hasaimed to study time series analysis of prices and the production of sometypes of fish (tilapia, peel whiting, mullet) with autoregressive and integratedmoving Average so that it can reach an accurate predictions as much aspossible, according to the authors of the economic policy in shaping theproductivity policy for those types of fish. The study found the followingresults:
(1)There's a price seasonal between the months at 1% significant levelfor tilapia and non- significant in white peel and mullet, such F ratiowas 10.049, 2.322, 1.317 respectively for the three categories.
(2)There are incidental and seasonal changes in the ingredients, andseasonal animated ratio of prices, where it was noted that the seasonalmoving average rate had reached its peak in tilapia during the monthsof October, July, March, April while it was lowest in September,February, and May. As for the white peel has reached its peak inFebruary, followed by November and the March, reached a minimum inthe months September, December, and August. As for the mullet the
ratio was at a maximum in November, followed by months ofDecember and February, respectively. While it was lowest in themonths April, March, October, where the percentage of changes forincidental changes / final seasonal changes of time series for each ofthe tilapia and white peel and mullet was 5.78, 4.23, 3.91, respectively.As the percentage of incidental changes / rotating changes was 1.74,1.15, 1.71 for the three categories, respectively.
(3)Predicted an increase in prices by about 26.7%, 33.2%, 14.11% fortilapia and white peel and mullet, respectively, during the period (2017-2019).
(4)There's a seasonal production between the months at 1% significantlevel for tilapia and white peel, but didn't significant for the mullet.
(5)There are incidental and seasonal changes in the ingredients changes,and production seasonal animation, it was found that the rate ofseasonal move of production has reached its maximum in tilapia duringthe months of September, February, and March while it was lowest inthe months of November, May and October, respectively. As for the
white peel it has reached a maximum in the months of February, Marchnd reached the minimum in the months of December, May,September, respectively. As for the mullet has this ratio reached itspeak in the months of December, March, July, while it was lowest inthe month of April. This has the percentage of incidental changes / final
seasonal time series for each of the tilapia fish and peel whiting andmullet 4.39, 2.45, 3.95, respectively.