ECONOMIC STUDY OF THE CURRENT AND FUTURE SITUATION OF THE WHEAT PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN EGYPT

The research aimed to study the current and future situation of thewheat production and consumption in Egypt during the period (1995-2014),this objective could be achieved through instrumental objectives: (1)Measuring the impact of the supply response of wheat during the studyperiod. (2) An estimate of the length of periods of production, covering imports
for home consumption of wheat during the study period, forecasting the lengthof these periods. (3) Assessment of the amount of the surplus or deficit inwheat allocated to domestic consumption, which can be added or withdrawn
from the strategic reserves of wheat during the study period and then predictthe amount of the surplus or deficit. (4) An estimate of the desired level ofwheat production in Egypt and compared to actual level during the studyperiod, with this prediction.Results showed: (1) The value of coefficient of elasticity in responsewheat introduced in accordance with the model in both Nerlove short and longterm about 0.14, 0.21, respectively, and this shows that the increase in farm
price by 1% leads to increased acreage by 0.14%, 0.21% in the same orderas annual response coefficient, as well as the time necessary to achieve fullresponse towards 0.669, 1.50 years in the order from the following year. (2)
Increased the food gap wheaten virtual Egypt during the study period, with anannual growth rate of 3%. Increased proportion of self-consumption objectivityof wheat in Egypt during the study period, with an annual growth rate of 1%.
(3) The percentage increase in the length of adequacy of production less thanthe rate of increase in length to cover imports for domestic consumption ofwheat, this indicator is not good in favor of domestic economy, where the ratio
between the length of the adequacy of production to cover imports fordomestic consumption of wheat between a minimum of around 1:0.48 in2009, a maximum of approximately 1:1.37 in 2010, with the average duringthe last five years (2010-2014) is estimated at approximately 1:0.92. (4)Expected to decrease the length of the adequacy of production for domesticconsumption of wheat of about 192.43 days 2015 to nearly about 189.57 daysin 2020, with an average of approximately 191 days, then the estimatedannual attrition rate at length to cover imports for domestic consumption byapproximately 1.49% during the forecast. Also expected to decrease thelength of the insufficient coverage of imports for domestic consumption ofwheat of about 138.33 days in 2015 to nearly about 131.18 days in 2020, with
an average estimated at 134.73 days, then the estimated annual attrition rateat length to cover imports for domestic consumption by about 5.17% duringthe forecast. Which refers to the difficult situation which could face Egypt inthe near future to meet the needs of the population. (5) It is expected to showa deficit in wheat allocated to domestic consumption continued during theperiod (2015-2020), it is expected that the total deficit of about 14.67 milliontons during that period about 274.92 days during the period of the forecast.Thus it is expected that there will be a serious strategic reserves of wheatwhich threatens the food security of Egypt, so the State must take appropriateaction to protect the strategic reserves of wheat on the one hand, and try todevelop. (6) Dropped the actual level of production than desired during mostperiods of study, except for the years 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009,2013, the average actual production during the study period by about 7327.60tons, while the average production by about desirable 7512.87 thousand tons,
valued for their nearly 1:1.03 any actual production has grossed about97.53% of desired counterpart during the study period. (11) the expectedincrease in the desired level of wheat production of about 9359.88, 000 tonsto nearly about 10438.73 thousand tons, with an average of about 9891.46thousand tons, estimated the annual growth rate in the desired productionlevel to about 1.83% during the period (2015-2020).The study recommends the following: (1) The need to adopt a newpolicy for the development of local production of wheat in order to increasethe length of insufficient production for domestic consumption and decreasethe period covering imports for home consumption and thus can achieve foodsecurity for Egypt as the ratio adequacy of surplus to a deficit in wheatonsumption is estimated at approximately 1:2.05. (2) The need to achievethe desired level of wheat production in Egypt both Serenade by vertical
expansion on the one hand and horizontal expansion, on the other hand, itrequires increasing average productivity to nearly about 3.08 tons by 2020and increase the cultivated area to nearly about 3.82 million acres by 2020.