Climate change and wheat production capacity scenarios in Egypt

Fahmy, Azza; داود, سهام ذکى; Abdalnaby, Mohamed; Atallah, Elsayed

doi:10.21608/jsas.2021.102970.1318

Climate change and wheat production capacity scenarios in Egypt

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ اخصائی زراعی، معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعی

² کلیة الزراعة - جامعة دمیاط

³ استاذ بمعهد بحوث الإقتصاد الزراعى

⁴ کلية الزراعة جامعة دمياط

10.21608/jsas.2021.102970.1318

Abstract

The effects of climate change have become widespread, both locally and globally,and the agriculture sector is the most affected by climatic conditions, threatening the achievement of food security and sustainable development.
The increase in temperatures in 2018 led to a decrease in wheat productivity to 2.68 tons /feddan, compared to 2.88 tons /feddan in 2017, which leads to a decrease in the self-sufficiency rate of about 43% in 2018, which represents a burden on the food trade balance.
The research aims to study the impact of climatic changes on total.
The study relied on using of simple regression equations, Phillips-Perron test, the use of the co-integration test according to the ARDL model.
The most important results were: It turns out that a relative increase of 10% for each of the maximum temperature for the month of March, the minimum temperature for the month of March, the relative humidity for the month of April, for the minimum temperature for the month of April will lead to a statistically significant relative decrease in the productivity of the wheat crop, amounting to about 4.32%, 3.87%, 1.90% and 2.97% respectively, The combined effect of climatic changes will decrease feddan productivity and consequently a decrease in farm income from about7% to about 34% At the national level, the import capacity will increase as a result of the decrease in wheat production capacity by imposing the stability of consumer energy, and then adecrease in wheat self-sufficiency rates from about 47.47% to about 31.22%.

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