Document Type : Original Research Paper
Authors
1
Agricultural Economics department Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar university, Cairo, Egypt.
2
Agricultural Economics department Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo university
Abstract
Climate change is predicted to adversely affect agricultural production, particularly in development countries such as Egypt, where crop production relies heavily on environmental factors such as rainfall and temperature. However, there have only been a limited number of studies on the effects of climate change dynamics on food security in Egypt, particularly at the household level. We therefore analyzed local and global production of study crops, food security determinants and the adaptation strategies to face the climate. Data were analyzed using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT); Simulating the impact of climate change on food production, The results show that climate change will reduce aggregate food production between -3% (2030) -3.8% (2050). Furthermore, it will lead to a reduce in the total production of oil crops, as the total production of soybean will reduce from about by -6.7%, -13.25% and about -2.63%, -6.00% for sunflower by 2030 and 2050.
On the other hand, it was found that the total production of the most important producing countries, such as Argentina, Ukraine, America, and Russia, except for Uruguay, will rise by about 3.64%, 6.60% by 2030 and 2050. While the total production of sunflower- for producing countries has also reduced, except for Russia, where it is expected to increase its total production by about 2.66%, 5.15% by 2030 and 2050. Finally, the study recommended that Egypt, need to develop measures to adapt to climate changes through providing climate-smart crop, improving practices Agricultural.
Keywords
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